4 possible scenarios of Iran in response to the martyrdom of Quds Force commanders in Damascus the details…

4 possible scenarios of Iran in response to the martyrdom of Quds Force commanders in Damascus  the details…


According to Hamshahri Online, Israeli analyst Alon Bankas wrote in a note in Haaretz newspaper: “Israel, which has been adhering to the implicit and unofficial rules of shadow war, attacked the building belonging to the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which hosts the senior commanders of the Quds Force and They were responsible for operations in Syria and Lebanon, it hit Iran directly.”

He claimed: “What Israel did was the right and inevitable thing, but it should be warned about the time that, considering the conditions and the current war in Gaza, this attack is a daring act and the escalation of tension and the scope of the war.” It is said that it may bring America into the war, of course, this depends on the framework and timing of Iran’s revenge.”

But what are Iran’s possible ways to take revenge? which can be explained in the following 4 scenarios:

“First: Iran should adhere to its old policy of not reacting immediately and wait for the right time and place, and carefully choose a target that is commensurate with the casualties and damage caused during the Israeli attack.

However, the importance of the targets attacked by Israel and the political protests in Tehran, which demand revenge to restore Iran’s honor and deterrence and credibility among regional groups, make this option difficult but still possible.

Second: Iran has no choice but to respond quickly and proportionately, thus targeting Israeli ships, embassies and elements abroad. This depends on security intelligence and seizing opportunities, two elements that Iran likely has, but the problem with this option is that it would trigger counter-intensification measures.

The third option is to turn to full escalation through Lebanon’s Hezbollah and engage Israel on a second front, which will be far more deadly and costly than Gaza.

This option, according to the Israeli author, raises an important question regarding Iran’s level of control and influence over Hezbollah: Can Tehran really force the group to enter a war that has wreaked havoc in Lebanon?

Fourth: It is a doomsday scenario in which an angry Iran, which feels that its honor has been tarnished, carries out attacks that are not limited to important Israeli targets, but also include American targets in the Persian Gulf.

But the author dismisses this option as “unreasonable and illogical” and adds: Escalation usually has its own characteristics and may be unwanted at first, but it can quickly turn into a wider conflict.


Original Source Link