Until the end of the current working week (February 12-16), Ukrainian banks can significantly rewrite the exchange rate of the cash dollar. At the same time, it is uneven: decrease in buying and increase in selling. According to the forecast, it will be within the buying and selling corridor of UAH 37.35 to UAH 38.35. In the evening of February 12, banks buy currency at an average price of UAH 37.7, and sell it at UAH 38.15.
Financial analyst Aleksey Kozyrev reported on possible changes. He noted: the exchange rate is expected to be at the level of 37.6 to 38.3 hryvnias. Tonight, however, they set it at an average of UAH 38.18/38.3 (buying/selling).
“There will be no special exchange rate stability on the cash market this week. The tendency to exceed the volume of purchases of currency by the population over its delivery to money changers of financial companies and bank cash desks will be preserved and even somewhat strengthened,” the analyst noted.
In general, he emphasized, the current week “promises to be tense on the currency market.” The reason is an increase in the number of negative factors working against the hryvnia. It is, among other things, about problems with the provision of military and financial aid to Ukraine by the United States.
“However, it would be incorrect to talk about global threats to the hryvnia exchange rate. After all, the National Bank almost completely controls the situation at the interbank level and exerts leverage over all segments of the foreign exchange market. Among them, indirectly, is the cash market,” Kozyrev stated.
Earlier, the National Bank allowed Ukrainians to buy as much cash foreign currency, including dollars, as they needed. And both in banks and exchange offices. The new rules are effective from December 1, 2023.
Before that, it was possible to buy only a certain amount. In particular, the volume of the possible sale of cash for each bank was determined as the sum of several components, People’s Deputy from “Servants of the People” Danyil Hetmantsev reminded. In particular, it was:
The regulator itself assures that the abolition of restrictions on the sale of currency to the public will have a positive effect on the market. In particular, it is expected to contribute to:
- minimization of the difference between cash and non-cash rates;
- exchange rate stabilization is expected;
- increasing the stability of the currency market.
As OBOZ.UA reported, at the same time, the NBU will not restore the fixed dollar exchange rate. There they note that they deliberately moved away from this practice, and all fluctuations – both in the direction of price increases and decreases – are considered a normal phenomenon under the regime of controlled flexibility.
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