The ruble exchange rate can strengthen to 80 per dollar, but it is more likely that until spring it will fluctuate in the range from 85 to 95, Alexey Zubets, director of the Institute of Socio-Economic Research of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told aif.ru.
“There are two factors that have opposite effects on the ruble exchange rate. On the one hand, it is strengthened thanks to the presidential decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings and the operational measures that the authorities are taking to ensure that exporters comply with this decree,” the expert said.
“On the other hand, oil prices have been falling since September and export earnings are generally declining. This is due to the fact that the European and American economies are in a state of depression. And in these conditions, it is difficult to expect growth in export revenue from Russian companies,” added Professor Zubets.
If foreign trade conditions were favorable for Russia, one could expect the ruble to strengthen to 85 per dollar and beyond, the expert believes. However, until prices on the world market rise, the Russian national currency will not be able to strengthen so much.
“I would give a 30% chance of further strengthening of the ruble to 80 per dollar, this could also happen, but it is much more likely that until spring it will fluctuate in the range from 85 to 95 per dollar. The fundamentally sound rate now is from 95 to 105 rubles per dollar. It would be like this if all support measures were canceled, including the presidential decree on the sale of foreign currency earnings,” concluded Alexey Zubets.
Earlier it became known that the Ministry of Finance supported the parliament’s initiative to introduce fines for violating the rules for the mandatory sale of export proceeds, which were established by decree of President Vladimir Putin. For its part, the government proposed to determine the maximum fine and appoint an agency that will deal with such cases.
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