‘Household debt’ trend is slowing but the proportion is still high.

‘Household debt’ trend is slowing but the proportion is still high.

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“Household debt” is an issue that many people are keeping an eye on. According to information from the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) or NESDB, it is stated that the overall debt of Thai households in the 3rd quarter of 2023 is at 16.2 trillion baht, an increase of 3.3% from the same quarter of the previous year. And if calculated in terms of household debt to GDP, it will be approximately 90.9% to GDP. It can be classified into 3 main groups: loans to purchase real estate, 33.8% of total household debt, loans for business 17.8% of debt. All households and other personal consumer loans accounted for 27.3% of total household debt.

Suraphon Ophasathien, General Manager of National Credit Bureau Company Limited or Credit Bureau He once gave his perspective on the issue of household debt. It’s something to worry about. And it’s a picture that’s called dangerous. Because it reflects the image of Thai household debt that continues to run fast.

While the expansion of the Thai economy is only growing at 1.8% or no more than 2% this year, and reducing household debt in Thailand to the level of 80% is considered “not easy”.

There is also debt that is invisible and ready to explode, namely “savings cooperative debt” that lends more than 2.2 trillion baht to members who are teachers and educational personnel. both working and retired, totaling more than 800 billion baht, and this group also applies for loans from the state’s specialized financial institutions. Commercial banks and non-banks total more than 600 billion baht, totaling 1.4 trillion baht.

As for non-performing debt (NPL), from the credit bureau’s data collection there is a total of 1.05 trillion baht, 1.04 trillion baht is in the process of debt restructuring, and there is also a special group of debt (SM) ) that is overdue for 30-90 days, which must be admitted that it is extremely dangerous. Because it still keeps flowing. Data at the end of 2023 found that SM group debt was approximately 610 billion baht and it is expected that in the next 12 months Bad debt will increase to 1.2 trillion baht and SM group debt will be close to 800 billion baht.

while Kasikorn Research Center stated that Thai household debt in 2024 may slow down, but its proportion to GDP is still high at 90.7%. Thai household debt has grown at a slower rate for the fifth year in a row, but outstanding debt remains high when Compared to the size of the economy At the same time, households still rely on loans to manage their daily liquidity. while incurring debt to purchase assets (Houses and cars) will slow down significantly in 2023 as purchasing power has not yet recovered. Households that incur additional debt are likely to be households in the middle-lower income group. and/or are households that must borrow money to maintain liquidity and meet daily expenses

By observation, it was found that Debt in the unsecured loan group Both credit cards and personal loans continue to grow at a high rate. Especially the part that is debtors of non-bank operators. Credit card loans and personal loans from non-bank portfolios grew by 4.6% and 17.9%, respectively. Debt for consumption other than credit card and personal loan debt also accelerated faster. This is in contrast to debt accumulation for other purposes, such as home debt and occupational debt, which grow at a slower rate. and shrinking car debt Meanwhile, loans from specialized financial institutions and savings cooperatives continued to grow. and higher than loans from other types of financial institutions

The ratio of household debt to GDP in Thailand is currently lower than the highest level of Thai household debt statistics of 95.5% seen in the first quarter of 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19. Kasikorn Research Center It is estimated that the ratio of Thai household debt to GDP may tend to slow down in the future. If Thai economic activities tend to recover and household debt began to grow more slowly. But it will still not be able to return to a level below 80% of GDP within the next 5 years.

However, the outlook for 2024 Kasikorn Research Center It is expected that household debt may grow below the 3% level, with the outstanding household debt balance in 2024 at 16.8 trillion baht, representing a proportion of approximately 90.7% to GDP under the Nominal assumption that GDP in 2024 will grow at a rate of approximately 3.6%, slowing down from the 91.3% contribution to GDP in 2023 because most households are likely to delay taking on new debt. Amid concerns about the pace of economic recovery that is still uncertain. Especially loans with a relatively high contract limit, such as home and car loans.

Krongkhwan Rodmuan

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