Not a season. Experts explained what is happening to prices for private houses

Not a season.  Experts explained what is happening to prices for private houses


March-April is the time when realtors have to go out more often to show plots of land, private houses and cottages. But since the beginning of this year, there has been no obvious recovery: there is demand, but it is far from last year’s figures, and even more so, from pre-pandemic values. What’s the matter, experts explained.

How is the demand for individual housing construction changing?

If we look at the indicators of the last two or three years, we can say that interest in moving from apartments to houses is gradually growing. The state also contributed to this – it extended preferential mortgage programs to individual housing construction. As soon as secondary mortgages began to rise in price rapidly in 2023, some buyers refocused on buying or building their own home. However, how long this will last is still unclear.

“Not all buyers are able to objectively assess their strengths and finances. In my practice, there are many stories when at first a person wants to sell a city apartment and move into his own house, and after 6-12 months he makes exactly the opposite request,” says realtor-practitioner Vladimir Shmelev. “That’s why I always advise you to first live for at least six months in the chosen location, assess the situation and only after that make a final decision. And, of course, if possible, it is better to try to keep a city apartment.”

Since the beginning of this year, demand has fallen by about 10-15% compared to the same months in 2023, he believes Head of the Country Projects Management Department at TSN Real Estate» Andrey Galkin.

“First of all, this is due to the situation when a number of leading banks introduced a commission for developers when issuing mortgages under preferential programs, and many developers were not satisfied with these requirements. As a result, many transactions in January-February, when all these events were unfolding, were paused and postponed,” the interlocutor clarifies.

How have prices changed?

“Today in the Moscow region, the construction of a country house with the purchase of a small plot of land with an area of ​​5-6 acres will cost on average from 9 to 14 million rubles. This will be a turnkey house, renovated, with all the necessary equipment and, perhaps, partially furnished,” says the general director of the real estate agency “ABC Real Estate.” Sergey Fakira. — Compared to last year, suburban real estate has become more expensive, but primarily due to rising prices for land plots. “They have become more expensive over the year by about 25-30%, in some areas – up to 50-70%.”

Galkin adds: in the second half of last year, against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate and market mortgage rates, there was an outflow of buyers from the secondary urban housing market to the suburban real estate segment. Against this background, country houses have risen noticeably in price.

In the capital region, the average growth was 20-30% over two years. Land plots have risen in price even more – 1.5-2 times. That is, plots that were previously offered at 300 thousand per hundred square meters now cost 450-500 thousand. rub.

At the same time, the cost of construction has remained almost unchanged for the current season. In the spring of 2023, of course, construction materials and services became more expensive – in the range of 10-15%. But gradually the market stabilized, and along with the more expensive goods, more budget-friendly analogues appeared.

How much will someone who decides to build on their own pay this season? Experts suggest that prices will rise by 15-25%, and this will not be due to an increase in demand for individual housing construction, but to inflation and the dollar exchange rate.

Do they provide a mortgage?

There is interest in mortgage loans to buy your own home or build it. They are still subject to preferential programs with a rate of 2-8%. In addition, with comparable loan amounts, the buyer purchases housing of a much larger area plus a plot of land instead of an apartment. But it’s not always possible to take out such a mortgage.

Firstly, banks began to evaluate potential borrowers and the objects themselves much more strictly. Situations when a lender changes the terms of a pre-approved loan are no longer uncommon. Secondly, the limits on the maximum amount of preferential mortgages in Moscow, the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region were reduced to 6 million rubles, and the rate became slightly higher.

“Cases have begun to emerge where loans are used inappropriately,” adds Fakira. — People took out preferential mortgages at reduced rates, but did not build a house, spending the money on business, buying cars, etc. Banks do not want to take risks and are more demanding of borrowers and accredited contractors.”

As reported in the Unified Resource of Developers with reference to the analytics of Bank DOM.RF, individual housing construction is most of all interested in the Moscow region, Krasnodar Territory and Tatarstan. Also in the top 10 were Moscow, Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Rostov, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen and Voronezh regions. Since the beginning of 2024, in half of the cases, clients have applied for a “Family Mortgage” for individual housing construction. 25% of loans are IT mortgages, and about 22% of borrowers took out mortgages with state support.

What will happen next?

Despite the fact that realtors have not yet seen a seasonal revival in the individual housing construction market, they assume that at the end of April – beginning of May the interest of buyers will still “thaw”. In general, supply and demand in most Russian regions tends to balance. Well, as summer approaches, the experts surveyed expect another surge in demand growth of around 10-12%. Therefore, if you have an intention to purchase a plot of land for construction or a finished country house, it’s time to do it.


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