The “bubble” is deflated. Banks in Russia have stopped giving loans to everyone | Personal money | Money

The “bubble” is deflated.  Banks in Russia have stopped giving loans to everyone |  Personal money |  Money

The credit boom of 2022 and the first half of 2023 gave way to a lull. Already at the end of last year, financial institutions rejected 56% of all applications for unsecured loans. Experts from explained the reasons for this state of affairs and when the situation may change.

Shooting at the bubble

According to analysts of the financial marketplace Compare, this trend is due to the fact that in the fourth quarter of last year new macroprudential (preventive) restrictions of the Central Bank came into force. If in August 2023 banks approved every second request for a consumer loan, then they sharply increased the number of refusals, Izvestia notes, citing a company representative.

“The situation was predictable, because the credit boom of 2022-2023 loaded tens of millions of Russians with loans and practically wiped out all low-risk borrowers,” believes financial consultant, economics and finance expert Vitaly Kalugin. — Now the share of those who have 2-3 or more loans has increased, so the risk of debt growth increases. This is not profitable for banks, so they have become much stricter in approving loans. In addition, the loans themselves have risen in price quite a lot due to the Central Bank rate.”

That is why, fearing the inflation of a credit “bubble”, since October last year the Central Bank has set a limit on issuing consumer loans for clients with a debt burden of 50–80%. That is, those who spend from 50 to 80% of their income on debt repayment. Banks could lend no more than 30% of their total loans to such clients. For those who spend more than 80% of their income on debt payments, the opportunity to take out a loan was further reduced (no more than 5% of their resources aimed at issuing loans).

Before payday

At the same time, the danger of clients moving from banks to microfinance organizations (MFOs) is small, experts say.

“The introduced restrictions on lending to borrowers with high debt loads apply not only to commercial banks, but also to microfinance organizations,” notes Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance of the Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov Mary Valishvili. “And although they have a higher limit for potentially problematic borrowers (not 5%, but 15%), one should not expect a massive flow.”

Moreover, Vitaly Kalugin believes that banks and microfinance organizations are unlikely to compete for such clients.

“The types of loans and their target category for these structures are different – it’s one thing to take out a loan for a large purchase (within 100 thousand rubles) and another thing to borrow 30-40 thousand before payday,” he says.

According to experts, in general, this situation will persist in the medium term, since it is caused not only by the actions of the regulator, but by fundamental reasons: the volume of debt burden of citizens, the growth rate of real disposable income, the level of the key rate and inflation. However, one can hardly expect that the Central Bank, even if it begins to reduce the refinancing rate, on which the cost of loans depends, will do so sharply. Most likely, this procedure will drag on for many months, so borrowers will have to wait quite a long time for the conditions to be relaxed.

Earlier it was reported about what loans Russians are interested in in the current situation.


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