The pressing of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Kherson region and the desperate desire of the Russian Federation to occupy Avdeyevka create “unpredictable tension in the Russian troops.”
The formation of bridgeheads of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Kherson region has put the Russian command in a dead end. In addition, not everything is so rosy for the occupiers in the Avdeevka area, where they have transferred considerable resources.
“And it all started on October 10, when the torchbearers received an order from their “superior” to present Avdeevka to him on a plate with a blue collar. According to the initial plan, as part of the offensive on October 10, two echelons of the Russian occupation troops were to surround Avdeevka, thereby creating optimal conditions for the occupation of the city before the New Year, provided Putin with a “victory”, which he would have fed to his consumers of informational fast food. The plan failed miserably,” said Aleksandr Kovalenko, a military-political observer of the “Information Resistance” group.
As a result, Avdeevka began to draw the resources of the occupiers from other bridgeheads – primarily from Luhansk, from the composition of the “Center” troop group. According to the expert, the most combat-capable part of this group of troops is now transferred to Avdeevka. In particular, the 2nd all-army army, the 55th OMBR of the 41st all-arms army, and the 239th tank regiment of the 90th tank division were sent there almost in full. But, as Kovalenko noted, this was not enough for the Russians to solve the issue of Avdeevka’s encirclement.
“It is not surprising, because I have repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that it is possible to be the most combat-ready brigade, but this does not mean – effective, because you are the most combat-capable compared to others. In the conditions of the absence of a full staff complement in the Russian troops, the regiment in its combat capabilities, it can be comparable to a battalion. Although why “can be” – it is. In addition, the nervousness of the command of the Russian occupiers in the Avdeevka area forced them to use not full-fledged units and formations, but to throw separate units into battle,” the observer emphasized .
All this led to the fact that the tasks set by the Russian dictator Putin near Avdeevka will not be completed by the New Year. And it is possible to speed up this process only by saturating the operation zones with an additional resource, explained Kovalenko.
“Simply put – to continue pressing with numbers. But where to get it? The “Center” troop grouping is exhausted and will even be partially strengthened by units of the “West” troop grouping. South? But in the south, not everything is rosy for the invaders either. defense of Ukraine, continuing to expand the bridgeheads. The road of the first border from Oleshek to Novaya Kakhovka is cut in several places, and the specter of inevitable physical control hangs over route 2206,” the expert drew attention.
Thus, the command of the Russian troop group “Dnepr” hastily formed three tactical groups to block the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the area of the Cossack Camps and Krynok, and the 70th MSD and 7th DSH are in “waiting mode”.
“Also, let me remind you that the 7th DShD was returned from the Zaporozhye region to strengthen the grouping of troops “Dnepr”, although before that it was supposed to strengthen the grouping of troops “Vostok”, – added the observer.
It will also be difficult for the Russians to take someone from the Zaporozhye region. If the enemy takes this step, the restraining potential of the Russian occupiers in the wedge driven by the Ukrainian Defense Forces into the second line of defense will weaken.
“There is an interesting twist. In order to capture Avdeevka before the New Year, the Russian occupying forces still need a resource. They took it, it seems, from where, but there are more than 400,000 occupiers in the war zone, but the quality does not have an effect. And there, from where it is taken, there is a problem of weakening the area, which needs to be compensated for. A resource impasse? And it cannot be solved without mobilization? And until the elections are held in Russia, the topic of mobilization is taboo,” Kovalenko said.
Thus, a situation arises when the pressure of the Defense Forces of Ukraine on the left bank of the Kherson region and the desperate desire of the Russian troops to occupy Avdeyevka create “unpredictable tension in the Russian troops, at which something must crack somewhere.”
The war in Ukraine: the situation on the front line
In the evening summary, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that 33 combat clashes with the Russian invaders took place at the front during the day. The enemy conducted assaults in several directions, including Avdeevsk, Marinsk, Bakhmutsk, Lymansk and others.
Meanwhile, the Defense Forces of Ukraine continue to hold positions on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region. The Ukrainian military inflicts fire damage on the enemy.
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