Türkiye plan from Russia after the death of Wagner leader Prigojin

Assoc. Dr. Murat Aslan wrote for AA Analysis how the death of Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigojin will affect Russia’s domestic and foreign policy balances.

The crash and death of Yevgeny Prigojin’s plane around Moscow was perceived by many as “Putin’s revenge”. One of the reasons for this perception is similar events in the past. In March 2018, a former Russian intelligence service worker, Sergey Skripal, and his daughter Yulia died in the UK after being poisoned by a nerve chemical. Opposition leader Aleksey Navalny was poisoned with a similar chemical in August 2020. On the other hand, the situation of Wagner leaders Yevgeniy Prigojin and Dmitriy Utkin, who performed Russia’s dirty work and overt or covert interventions ‘for a fee’, is a little different.

Navalny is Putin’s political opponent, while Skripal is a British agent who has betrayed his state. Prigojin and Utkin were two entrepreneurs who replaced the Russian Armed Forces. What made these two names different was primarily the Russian nationalist lines. In other words, their ‘devotion’ was appreciated by the Russian people and nationalists. In addition, they showed their courage and increased their prestige by serving the interests of the Russian ‘ali’ in Syria, Libya and the Sahel region of Africa, and by voicing the weakness of the Russian administrators in Ukraine. However, when Russia was on the battlefield, for whatever reason, leaving the front and starting a ‘justice march’ to Moscow was unforgivable.

Normally, if a private military company or a soldier shows up at the front, the divanıharp is established and the defense of the rebel or the one who incites the military rebellion is heard. As a result, if the sentence of ‘shotgunning’ is given, the execution is carried out visibly. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin preferred to involve Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko in Wagner’s rebellion and to make an agreement with Wagner. The fact that the Russians had given their employees a choice when sending Wagner to Belarus was hardly expected. Under the agreement, Wagner employees were given the option to go to Belarus, join the Ministry of Defense, or return home, while allowing Wagner to continue operations in Africa.

– POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS ON THE RUSSIAN FRONT AFTER PRIGOJIN’S DEATH

What will happen to Wagner after the death of Prigojin and his partner Utkin is the most curious issue, especially in Western countries. Wagner, who is still active in Syria and Libya, was urged against the intervention of the Economic Community of Western States (ECOWAS), which was encouraged by France and the United States (USA) after the coup of General Omar Tchiani in Niger. In other words, Wagner was Russia’s ready force to ‘stick’ the interests of the Western club. After Prigojin, it should be expected that Russia will naturally develop measures against the Wagner gap and prevent possible gray areas. Among the alternatives are to transform Wagner, to establish a new military company, to transfer the tenders received by Wagner and to engage the Russian Special Forces. The first of these options requires the consent of Wagner’s existing employees, the second requires the liquidation of Wagner and the creation of a new ‘Prigojin’, and the third requires direct engagement with proxies from Western countries. Possibly torn between options one and two, Putin will take a flexible and adaptable stance to the circumstances dictated by the situation.

Another issue that comes to mind is what will be the reaction to Putin in Russia after this incident? There is already a period of silence in Russia due to the fact that the media is completely under state control and the instantaneous interventions of the security forces. As a matter of fact, the immediate arrest of those who opposed the intervention in Ukraine by the police is still remembered. Prigojin’s death will likely be subject to the same silence process. However, Prigojin and Wagner have a slight difference. These individuals and entities were ready to sacrifice their lives for Russia, even in exchange for money. While defending themselves, they talked about the weakness of the administration in Russia. Therefore, a bottom wave should be expected in the medium term between the Russian youth and Russian nationalists loyal to the Orthodox Church. The boom in the sale of symbols of Wagner’s icons also indicates that the bottom wave has already begun.

Wagner’s exiles to Belarus are another consideration. These people now appear to experience emotional intensity rather than a professional occupation. Russian casualties that may increase in Ukraine and a possible withdrawal may reflect the emotional intensity of Wagner members to the Russian public. As a matter of fact, there may be ‘attitudes’ towards the Russian rulers, not towards the Russian state, individual actions through ‘lone wolves’ or limited actions in an organized manner in Moscow. While the first two of these options are trying to give a message to the Russian public, the third requires breaking bridges with Putin. Because of the possibility that Prigojin might leave behind a Plan C, it is possible that Wagner will soon enter a fight against the Russian deep state under Putin’s control. However, in such cases, the steps that Putin and Wagner can take mutually need to be evaluated comparatively. Ultimately, Putin’s hard and smart stance and deep state experience are capable of preventing such waves in the short and medium term.

– WHAT HAPPENS IN THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR?

The developments that may occur in the Ukraine-Russia war after Prigojin’s death are also important. The conflicts that stagnated and turned into a war of position in Ukraine due to Wagner’s withdrawal from the front will not change its face with Prigojin’s death. However, the same cannot be said for the morale and motivation of the lower-level Russian soldiers, who are deeply attached to Russian nationalism. Undoubtedly, the exemplary results of leaving the front for the Russian soldiers were seen with Prigojin. However, the fate of Wagner, who shouted the truth in the war dictated by Putin, caused the Russian soldiers to slowly question the war. That questioning may affect the fate of the war, depending on Ukraine’s military strategy. So, starting today, the Russian military and political leadership must present a success story to the Russian people and soldiers so that they can commit themselves to the war. Undoubtedly, this success story has to be adorned with political, religious and nationalist discourses.

– POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA POLICY

It is unrealistic to expect a change in the situation in Russia’s crisis regions such as Ukraine, Africa, Syria and Libya. Russia’s policy of encircling NATO in Africa is not new. Action had already taken place in Sahel countries such as Niger, Mali and Sudan, and Western companies and soldiers were being expelled from these countries. Russia’s African policy will likely continue at the same pace, although the horse has been changed as the stream crossed. Russia’s plan is to remove Ukraine from the agenda of the Western public opinion. Considering the changing priorities of the Western countries with the Ukraine war, creating a new situation in Africa may remove Ukraine from being a priority.

In Syria, the situation is somewhat different. Stuck with the Ukraine war, Russia displayed a lower profile in Syria. Iran filled the vacuum there. Presumably this picture will not change as the Ukraine war continues. For Russia, the real danger in Syria will be the US and European states’ agreement with Iran in return for the nuclear program and oil/gas. Iran could make big gains if it makes a deal with the West in return for the lifting of sanctions. In this case, Russia may highlight the option of balancing Iran with Turkey in Syria. In this sense, Wagner is not actually a parameter in Syria.

Libya is a very different matter. Wagner, who became dependent on Khalifa Haftar after the Turkish military intervened in Libya and changed the balance, controls the Sirte oil crescent and the strategic city of Jufra. Russia’s priority here is to open a door to the Sahel states of Africa through eastern Libya and to get a share of Libyan oil. So, Russia should not be expected to leave Libya. It would be in Russia’s interest to experience a transitional period by making small concessions with Tripoli and Benghazi. Of course, at this point, it is necessary to pay attention to what kind of pressure Western states can put on Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dibeybe and Khalifa Haftar. It is likely that the acceleration of the political process in Libya and the execution of elections in a short time will be the priority of the West. During the process of removing Wagner from Libya, it would be in Russia’s interest to not hold elections and preserve the status in Libya.

As a result, Prigojin died. Wagner is being purged and Russia has to tidy itself up both at home and abroad. What is certain is that a transitional period has already begun. This process will end soon. However, its effects will be felt in a wide geography. In that case, it is necessary to pay attention to the steps that Russia will actually take by Putin and the reactions of Western countries. If these responses are in the form of action-reaction, Putin can recover the situation in a short time. However, the West’s choice to take a provocative stance and Wagner’s opposite steps may force Putin. So the last question should be asked: Could the West want to get a hand on Wagner and use it against Putin?

[Doç. Dr. Murat Aslan, Hasan Kalyoncu Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesi ve SETA Kıdemli Araştırmacısıdır.]

* The opinions in the articles belong to the author and may not reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.