[이삼식칼럼] Ultra-low birth rate and shaky 100-year plans | Segye Ilbo

Last year, Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.72, which is so low that the whole world takes notice. The effects of extremely low birth rates are first seen in the education sector. When the 230,000 people born last year grow up and start school, the number of students will decrease significantly. When entering elementary school, the number of students enrolled last year will be reduced by half to 57%, when entering middle school, 50.8%, and when entering high school, to 48.9%. Even if the latest college entrance rate is applied when entering college or university, the rate will drop to about one-third (33.6%) of last year’s freshmen.

The number of schools increased rapidly with the introduction of compulsory middle school education (2002) and the expansion of university seats. Just looking at the period from 2000 to 2022, elementary schools increased from 5,267 to 6,163, middle schools increased from 2,731 to 3,258, high schools increased from 1,957 to 2,373, and universities increased from 161 to 190. However, the imbalance between school demand and supply is deepening due to a decrease in the number of students due to low birth rates. Due to the overabundance of schools, the number of underpopulated schools (schools with less than 60 students) is increasing, leading to school closures. There is also a forecast that the number of underprivileged elementary schools will increase from 1,484 in 2020 to 1,943 in 2040, the number of underprivileged middle schools will increase from 573 to 784, and the number of underprivileged high schools will increase from 95 to 213. The number of elementary, middle, and high schools that were closed because underrepresented schools could no longer survive reached 154 in the period from 2019 to 2023 alone.

As the number of school closures increases, the phenomenon of ‘new maengmosamcheonjigyo’, in which people move to places far away from work to educate their children, is becoming more frequent. It has now become a familiar sight for students to live in dormitories at schools located in the county seat as there is no school in the county seat. In the case of under-populated schools, the problem of poor quality of education is emerging as socialization and education become difficult due to a lack of students. In addition, as the number of students decreasing is concentrated in popular departments, the sense of crisis in unpopular basic academic fields is increasing. Unlike universities in the metropolitan area, local universities are experiencing poor management due to student recruitment difficulties, deepening the gap between the rich and the poor among universities, and as a result, the hollowing out of local universities is accelerating. These education problems are accelerating the disappearance of local areas by encouraging parents, children, and young people to leave the region.

Education problems caused by the low birth rate can be solved by restoring the birth rate. However, recovery of the birth rate cannot be certain, and even if possible, it will take a considerable amount of time. Therefore, in addition to recovering the birth rate, it is necessary to reform the education system to suit the era of low birth rates. Since the Japanese colonial period, Korea has operated a school system of 6 years of elementary school, 3 years of middle school, 3 years of high school, and 4 years of university. However, not many countries around the world have adopted this academic system. In an era of student decline due to low birth rates, it is necessary to consider ways to effectively educate a small number of students by reorganizing them into 8 (elementary) – 4 (middle school) – 4 (university) or 7-5-4, as in other countries. Schools that already operate integrated elementary, middle, and high schools also need to switch to a chemically integrated system that shares principals, vice principals, and teachers, rather than a formal physical integration that only involves removing fences. It is expected that it will be difficult for all universities to maintain a comprehensive university system in an era of student decline. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure that universities are maintained in a balanced manner in all regions through a transition from a college-centered focus to specialized universities that take into account regional characteristics.

Education is often said to be a hundred-year plan. However, the foundation of education is being greatly shaken by the impact of low birth rates. We need to overcome the ultra-low birth rate phenomenon and fill schools with students again. This goes beyond simply solving education problems and is also very important in terms of securing human resources for the country’s sustainable development. At the same time, there is a need to rush to improve the educational system for a hundred years to adapt to the decrease in the number of students. Wisely overcoming the education crisis in the era of low birth rates and creating a sustainable educational environment for future generations is an important task for our society. Cooperation between the government, the education community, and all walks of life is needed.

Lee Sam-sik, Director of Hanyang University Aging Society Research Institute and President of the Population Health and Welfare Association

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