“No division due to nomination wave… “The theory of judging the regime also depends on the roles of the military and military.” [심층기획]

‘Does falling have wings?’

This is what is being said about the Democratic Party of Korea at the moment. With the April 10 general election approaching in a month, experts said it was clear that the Democratic Party had entered a complete decline due to the nomination crisis. Parts of the Han River Belt in Seoul, which the Democratic Party is currently pursuing, and the Nakdong River Belt in the PK (Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam) regions are beginning to show signs of conflict. In the Gyeonggi region, lawmakers withdrew from the party in opposition to the nomination and candidates from the New Reform Party, a new party in the third zone, declared their candidacy one after another, raising the prospect that some distribution of votes could hinder the Democratic Party’s candidates.

However, looking back at Korean political history, the month before the election is enough time for the situation to turn once again. If the Democratic Party rebounds, it will ultimately be the ‘government judgment theory’ that will become its ‘wing’. However, the general analysis of experts is that it is not the Democratic Party that holds the ‘key’, but President Yoon Seok-yeol and People Power Party Emergency Response Committee Chairman Han Dong-hoon. No matter how much the Democratic Party shouts slogans about judging the regime, it is difficult for the theory of judging the regime to gain strength if the division of roles remains solid, with Chairman Han standing at the forefront of the election board and President Yoon focusing on issues such as increasing the number of medical schools with strong support from the general public. .

◆No nomination wave and division expand the battleground

Political critic Park Sang-byeong said in a phone call on the 10th, “It is clear that the Democratic Party candidates are ahead in the metropolitan area as a whole, but now there are places where it can turn into a close race.” He added, “In particular, we need to look at the Han River Belt. He diagnosed, “The People Power Party is clearly on the rise in Dongjak and Seongdong.” Dongjak and Seongdong are both constituencies directly affected by the Democratic Party nomination wave.

The withdrawal of incumbent lawmakers due to the nomination crisis is also bad news for the Democratic Party. Lee Jun-han, a professor at Incheon National University (political diplomacy), mentioned the semiconductor belt in the Gyeonggi region (Suwon, Hwaseong, Yongin, Pyeongtaek, etc.) and pointed out, “The opposition is divided, but the People Power Party shows no signs of it.” In the case of Rep. Lee Won-wook, who left the Democratic Party and joined the New Reform Party, Rep. Lee Won-wook is running in Hwaseongjeong, Gyeonggi-do, and Rep. Cho Eung-cheon is running in Namyangjugap, so elections are scheduled to be held in these constituencies in a three-way structure. Likewise, lawmakers Hong Young-pyo and Seol Hoon, who decided to leave the Democratic Party and join New Future, are also planning to run for office in their own constituencies, Bupyeong-eul in Incheon and Bucheon-eul in Gyeonggi-do, so it is inevitable that the opposition votes in these regions will be dispersed. Professor Lee also commented on the Nakdong River Belt, saying, “In addition to the Democratic Party nomination wave, President Yoon Seok-yeol is working hard to provide support (through the People’s Livelihood Debate, etc.), so the Democratic Party’s active members have no choice but to struggle.”

◆Will the regime judgment theory survive?

Experts point out that the tendency to ‘decouple’ the sentiments of judgment against the regime and support for the Democratic Party has intensified as the nomination wave has unfolded. Several public opinion polls confirm the decline in the approval rating of the Democratic Party, but this does not mean that the sentiment against the government will be resolved. Political critic Lee Jong-hoon analyzed, “Even though the approval rating of the Democratic Party is falling, public opinion that the government and the ruling party must be kept in check in this general election is relatively solid.”

In fact, when Gallup Korea asked 1,000 people over the age of 18 across the country on the 5th to 7th about the results they expect from the April 10 general election, the proportion of responses that said ‘many opposition party candidates should be elected to keep the government in check’ was ‘the main opposition party’. The total of ‘majority elected’ (35%) and ‘third zone majority elected’ (16%) combined was around 51%. The answer that ‘many ruling party candidates must be elected to support the government’ was 35% (sampling error is ±3.1% points at 95% confidence level, response rate is 14.4%. For more details, refer to the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee website) . In the last general election (April 15, 2020), the trend between government support and government checks reversed about a month before the election.

Political critic Park Sang-byeong said, “The most important thing for the ruling party is not to give the public the impression that President Yoon is interfering in the election. “In particular, whether or not Mrs. Kim Kun-hee’s public actions before the election can create an inflection point that shakes the situation,” he said. There is also an opinion that the People Power Party, which must defend against the Democratic Party’s offensive to criticize the government, should also come up with a different strategy than before. Political critic Lee Jong-hoon pointed out, “The slogan of overthrowing the activist group by emergency committee chairman Han Dong-hoon appears to have lost steam as former chief Lim Jong-seok was cut off,” adding, “But continuing to criticize Representative Lee Jae-myung will only increase fatigue (among the moderates).” .

Reporters Kim Seung-hwan and Choi Woo-seok

[ⓒ 세계일보 & Segye.com, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]