War in Gaza: under threat of attack from Iran, Israel warns Tehran against escalation in the region

The Jewish state warned Iran on Saturday that it would “suffer the consequences of an escalation” in the region, as the United States plans to strengthen its presence there, more than six months after the start of the war against Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This warning comes after Iran announced the seizure of a ship “linked to Israel” in the Gulf, against a backdrop of heightened tensions between the two countries.

Israel is on alert in the face of threats of reprisals from Tehran, which promised to “punish” Israel after a deadly strike on April 1 on its Iranian consulate in Damascus (Syria), which it blames on it. The regime’s supreme leader and number one, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Wednesday that the Jewish state “must be punished”. A frontal attack would then be a major escalation in the currently confined conflict between Israel and Hamas with the risk of a total conflagration in the Middle East. An adviser to the Iranian Supreme Leader welcomed on Saturday the “total panic” which gripped Israel while awaiting the response announced by Tehran to the strike which targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

This Saturday, a car bomb exploded on Saturday in a central district of Damascus housing embassies, without causing any casualties, Syrian state media said, citing a police source. It was not immediately possible to determine who was responsible for the explosion and who was targeted.

Iran could use “regional relays”

According to experts, several attack scenarios are possible unless the Sultanate of Oman, which often acts as a mediator between the United States and Iran, manages to calm things down. Still according to Reuters, an American intelligence source said affirmed, for his part, that the Iranian response would be “controlled”, “non-escalatory”, and that Tehran would “probably” call on “its regional relays to launch a certain number of attacks against Israel”.

Among its relays are the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Shiite militias and the Yemeni Houthi rebels. In the process, Lebanese Hezbollah announced on Friday that it had launched “dozens of rockets” on Israeli positions, in response, according to it, to Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon. The Israeli army indicated for its part that “no injuries were reported”. On Saturday, Lebanese Hezbollah claimed responsibility for “a drone attack” and another rocket attack against military positions in Hanita in northern Israeli territory. In response, Israeli artillery bombarded targets in southern Lebanon.

The most likely scenario would be a sort of multi-cushion pool game, using its relays in the Middle East. One of the hypotheses put forward would be an operation on the Syrian Golan Heights, occupied by Israel since 1967, and from where Israeli fighter planes left to bomb the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital. This operation would be carried out by Lebanese Hezbollah or Iraqi Shiite militias. Thus, Iran would not be directly responsible but would have had its “revenge”.

But in the months or even years to come, an attack or attack could target Israeli interests abroad such as an embassy, ​​a plane, etc. Iran has numerous relays, particularly in Africa. And in this hypothesis, the press release claiming this act would refer to the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Targeting Israel’s economic interests

Another axis: attacking Israel’s economic interests. This Saturday, the maritime special forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic, seized a container ship “linked” to Israel in the Gulf, the official Irna agency announced.

“A container ship called MCS Aries was seized by maritime special forces” during “an operation carried out with a helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz”, indicated Irna, specifying that the ship “flying the Portuguese flag and managed by the Zodiac company owned “by Zionist capitalist Eyal Ofer”, was being “directed towards the territorial waters” of Iran.

25 crew members are on board the container ship MSC Aries, whose control was taken by the maritime special forces of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic, according to the Italian-Swiss shipowner MSC. The Iranian authorities have not indicated whether this operation was linked to the response announced by Tehran after the deadly attack carried out in early April against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, attributed to Israel. After the attack, Israel urged the EU to classify the Revolutionary Guards as a “terrorist organization.”

Iran has supported the Houthi rebels but has so far not taken responsibility for a seizure of ships in the Gulf, blaming Israel. Maritime attacks in recent months have driven up insurance costs for ships transiting the Red Sea and led many shipping companies to prefer the much longer passage that bypasses the southern tip of the African continent.

“We call on Iran to immediately release this ship and its crew, made up of Indians, Filipinos, Pakistanis, Russians and Estonians,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement. , to the White House. “Seizing a civilian vessel without prior provocation is a flagrant violation of international law and an act of piracy.”

Israel ready to respond to Iran

Under these conditions, the most dangerous way to inflame the conflict would be an attack by Iran on Israel directly from its territory with the sending of missiles. Israel has already warned that if this were the case: “Israel will respond and attack Iran”, according to Israel Katz, its head of diplomacy.

Iran “will suffer the consequences of its choice to further aggravate the situation”, the Israeli army warned this Saturday as the country is on alert in the face of threats of reprisals from Tehran, an ally of Palestinian Hamas. “We have strengthened our preparation to protect Israel from further Iranian aggression. We are also ready to respond,” added Israeli army spokesperson Daniel Hagari.

But in this case, Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, while the country seeks to have the bomb. But above all, the Tehran regime is currently facing a social and economic crisis and would probably have difficulty sustaining a frontal war over time.

The United States sends troops

In Washington, US President Joe Biden says he expects Iran to take action “soon”. He sent the head of US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, to Israel for talks. The United States announced Friday the sending of reinforcements to the Middle East while Israel is on alert in the face of this possible Iranian attack.

Furthermore, faced with this threat, several airlines have decided to avoid Iranian airspace. After the German airline Lufthansa and its Austrian subsidiary Austrian Airlines, the Australian company Qantas announced on Saturday to divert its long-haul flights between London and Perth.

Fears of a regional conflagration pushed the Netherlands on Saturday to close, “as a precaution”, their embassy in Iran as well as their consulate in Erbil, in Iraqi Kurdistan. Paris had called on its nationals on Friday to “refrain” from traveling to Iran, Israel but also to Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Several countries, including Germany and the United States, are also asking their nationals not to travel to Iran.

At least 52 dead in 24 hours in the Gaza Strip

Nearly 2,000 km west of Iran, in the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army continued its strikes, once again targeting the Nusseirat refugee camp in the center of the Palestinian territory which it is besieging and including the majority of the 2.4 million inhabitants are threatened with famine according to the UN.

After withdrawing its troops from Khan Younes (south), the Israeli army announced on Saturday that it was continuing its operations against Hamas fighters in the center of the Palestinian enclave. In Deir al-Balah (center), an AFP video shows a devastated landscape and mountains of ruins, including the remains of a mosque. The army “demanded that the entire area be evacuated” before it was “annihilated in a few minutes”, Abdoullah Baraka, a witness, told AFP. In 24 hours, 52 Palestinians were killed, bringing the total toll to 33,686 people, mainly civilians, since the start of the war, according to a new report from Hamas.

In addition to the human toll and destruction, the war has caused a humanitarian catastrophe throughout the Gaza Strip where humanitarian aid, strictly controlled by Israel, is arriving in dribs and drabs. But in recent days, Israeli authorities have reported a record number of aid trucks being allowed into the Palestinian territory.

The Israeli army also announced on Friday that a new crossing point had opened in the north. According to local media, it is near the Israeli town of Zikim, not far from Erez, a crossing point currently closed. “The increase in aid is not yet tangible,” Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), declared on X.

“Aid must be able to reach everyone in need safely,” he added, calling on Israel to “lift” restrictions on its agency staff to allow them access to northern Gaza.

Pope Francis expressed his “great” suffering due to the war in a message Friday to mark the end of Ramadan. “I suffer greatly because of the conflict in Palestine and Israel,” wrote the pope, 87, in a message sent to the Al Arabiya channel made public by the Vatican.