Expert on escalation in the Middle East: “Jordan is under pressure”

Some of Iran’s drones and missiles have been intercepted by Jordan’s air force. But Amman’s relationship with Israel remains tense, according to an expert.

Jordan at the center of the conflict: sky over the capital Amman on Sunday night Photo: Reuters

Sunday night was also extremely tense in Jordan. Stranded passengers sat outside the closed gates of Queen Alia Airport for hours after the airspace was closed to civilian traffic from 11 p.m. Outside, burning missiles kept lighting up the sky. The Jordanian government confirmed on Monday morning that it had “intercepted foreign objects in Jordanian airspace to protect citizens and residential areas,” according to the state news agency Petra. What does this mean given months of anti-Israel rhetoric and Iran’s warning that Jordan could be “the next target” if it interferes in the attack?

taz: Mr. Abu-Dalbouh, Jordan borders Israel and the West Bank as well as Syria and Iraq, Iran’s neighboring country. So the kingdom is literally in the middle of the conflict.

Walid Abu Dalbouh: I would say that Jordan’s geopolitics plays a very important role in political and military events in the region. Its geographical location can be an advantage, but it can also backfire. Depending on the scenario, airstrikes from Israel on Iran or from Iran on Israel could be seen over Jordanian skies. This puts a lot of pressure on Jordan. Namely, how the country can maintain its security and sovereignty while at the same time dealing with it at a political level.

So was his response, shooting down Iranian drones, primarily about security and sovereignty? Or a signal to Iran?

This is about Jordan’s sovereignty. And possibly also about security. Jordanian airspace should not be violated. But Jordan is very close to the western camp. There are two US military bases here. If Jordan has to make a decision, it will be closer to the West if in doubt. But Jordan already has enough to worry about with Shiite groups in the north of the country and drug smuggling.

They are referring to arms and drug smuggling from Syria, in which militias allegedly supported by Iran are involved, which Iran denies. And Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah, which allegedly killed three US soldiers in Jordan in January.

These problems are not going away anytime soon and may increase in the near future. That is why Jordan is trying to put itself in a neutral position in the increasing escalations between Iran and the Western camp.

Jordan also finds itself in a complex political situation: it is an ally of the West, but also has strong ties to the Palestinian population. Many Jordanians are of Palestinian origin.

From the outset, Jordan advocated a peaceful solution to the conflict based on the UN resolution. But there has been so much pressure on decision-makers, calls to cancel the peace agreement with Israel. They are increasing because so many civilians are dying in Gaza. Therefore the government is in a very difficult position. It’s about how it can maintain the balance between the demands of citizens and what is related to the political relationship with Israel. That is the dilemma.

How seriously should Iran’s threats be taken?

It was the first time that missiles were fired from Iranian soil. But overall it wasn’t particularly threatening. One of the reasons could be that Iran had to hit back to save face. But I don’t think both sides really want to escalate. And US President Biden then recommended that Israel not counterattack. But we cannot know how the situation will develop in the future.