Government delivers Stability Program, but economic impact of new measures only in September

The 2024-2028 Stability Program, delivered this Monday, April 15th, in Parliament, foresees, for this year, that the economy will grow 1.5%, that the budget balance will stand at 0.3% (around 830 million euros), and public debt at 95.7% of gross domestic product (GDP). The document’s macroeconomic scenario is based on the current policies of the previous Government, excluding extraordinary measures, and are therefore provisional values.

The current Government’s forecasts, including the measures it intends to implement and their respective financial impact, should only be known at the end of September, after the government negotiates with the European Commission the new document that will replace the Stability Program. In practice, only at that time will the financial and economic impact of the new executive’s measures be known, whether those taken in the meantime or those planned to be taken in the following years.

Until then, even if measures are taken that have an impact on the budget and the economy – such as the reduction in IRS that will be announced on Friday or as a result of negotiations with public service professionals – it will not be possible to have a view of the joint impact. The macroeconomic scenario of the Montenegrin government (with its policies and not the so-called invariant policy scenario) is thus referred to the presentation of the budget program that has to be delivered in Brussels at the end of September.