Markus Söder’s team is himself

Regardless of how the Bavarian State election one thing seems certain: CSU boss Markus Söder will remain prime minister for now. It’s hard to say more at the moment. How strong his government will be, how many ministries CSU must hand over to the Free Voters, whether he, Söder, can once again intervene effectively in the race for the candidacy for chancellor, all of this depends on the exact result of the CSU, and therefore on a few percent or not. There are only two points between 36 and 38 percent – and yet it’s a world apart for Söder.

The CSU election campaign is tailored entirely to him; it is a solo election campaign. In addition to the constituency candidates, it is primarily his likeness that is billboarded across the region. It’s him who goes around the beer tents with incredible diligence. The Söder team is Söder. If the election goes well again, it will be his triumph. If things turn out differently, he alone bears responsibility.

Söder and the CSU are chaining themselves to the Free Voters before the election

This applies above all to two core decisions of the Christian Social strategy. On the one hand, there is the issue of coalition election campaigns. The party, whose hallmark for decades was its invincibility, is this time going into a state election with a coalition statement and is chaining itself to the Free Voters. Of course, Söder could not have expected that a sinister leaflet from Hubert Aiwanger’s youth would come to light a few weeks before the election. The fact that his options for responding effectively to this were severely limited is, however, a consequence of his decision to run a coalition election campaign.

The idea of ​​the so-called bourgeois coalition Bavaria to stage itself as a haven of stability against the divisive traffic lights in Berlin would have collapsed if Söder’s government had collapsed shortly before the election. Robert Habeck’s heating law may have been a piece of craftsmanship, but the Aiwanger affair surrounding the anti-Semitic leaflet affects the foundation of our country’s values.

Migration of industry: Bavaria has more to lose than other federal states

Söder’s second decision is closely related to his coalition statement. Just as he tries to present his government as a counter-model to Berlin’s alleged traffic light swamp, he also stylizes the Free State as the better Germany. Of course, a CSU politician cannot be blamed if he praises Bavaria for being a region particularly spoiled by creation. But when this elevation no longer fits in with people’s lives, it becomes dangerous.

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A CSU campaign with the motto “Summer, Sun, CSU” has already failed resoundingly. The result in 2008 was like an abrupt drop in the weather – minus 17 percent. Even today, Söder’s feel-good election campaign does not meet the mood of many people. The citizens are looking for affordable housing, the municipalities are groaning under the number of migrants, and the Bavarian economy – despite all of Söder’s assurances – will hardly be able to decouple itself from the German downward trend. On the contrary: If industry moves away because of high energy prices, then Bavaria, as an industrially strong state, has far more to lose than other federal states. One would like to hear something from the Prime Minister on all of these points that goes beyond the unseemly harsh Green bashing among Democrats.

The CSU will re-elect Söder as party leader on Saturday with good results. What this oath of loyalty is really worth will become clear after October 8th.