One year after the nuclear phase-out: nuclear power? Does anyone miss them?

On April 15, 2023, the last three German nuclear power plants went offline, accompanied by fears of blackouts and inflation. Which of these happened?

One of the last three nuclear power plants in Germany went offline a year ago: Isar 2 nuclear power plant in Essensbach, Bavaria Photo: Wolfgang Maria Weber/Imago

FREIBURG/BERLIN taz | The debate about nuclear energy never ends. Also because it is generally considered to be relatively climate-friendly: compared to coal and gas power plants, it causes fewer CO₂ emissions. Even in the IPCC report, despite its risks, nuclear energy is mentioned as a way to cover at least a small part of energy needs with low emissions. When the last three German nuclear power plants, Emsland, Isar 2 and Neckarwestheim 2, went offline on April 15, 2023, critics of the phase-out also used this supposed climate protection argument as a vehicle to generally question the shutdown of nuclear power generation. There were also a number of concerns about security of supply. After 12 months, an initial balance can now be drawn.

Was the loss of nuclear power replaced by coal and gas?

No. Net public electricity generation from fossil fuels was 155 billion kilowatt hours (terawatt hours, TWh) in the last twelve months. In the twelve months before the nuclear phase-out it was 210 TWh. Fraunhofer ISE prepared these figures as part of its energy charts. The CO₂ value of the German electricity mix, which the Federal Environment Agency estimated at 434 grams per kilowatt hour for 2022, fell to less than 400 grams in 2023 despite the nuclear phase-out.

Why is it that the electricity mix in Germany has become lower in emissions?

On the one hand, due to renewable energies, which increased by a good 32 TWh within a year and thus, purely in terms of the total amount, compensated for the loss of nuclear power (29.5 TWh). At the same time, electricity consumption in the country also fell by around two percent. In addition, there is a reversal of the export balance: in the twelve months before the exit, Germany still exported 21 TWh on balance; after the exit, net imports amounted to 23 TWh. Germany now covers around five percent of its electricity needs through imports.

What role does nuclear power from France play for Germany?

Of course, Germany also gets electricity from France, because it is the nature of the European electricity market that all countries trade electricity with their neighbors. But defining the quantity is difficult because Germany is also a transit country – so some things become a question of definition. If, for example, Austria buys electricity in France that flows through Germany, it appears in the statistics here as an import from France and at the same time as an export to Austria. From a purely physical perspective, Germany imports nuclear power, which it doesn’t actually need. That’s why it’s better to look at electricity trading, i.e. in which countries Germany buys the electricity it consumes. In 2022, that was largely Denmark, followed by Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands.

Why is Germany currently increasingly purchasing French nuclear power?

Because the French power plants have recently failed less often than in previous years. French nuclear power generation reached its highest level in three years in the first quarter of 2024. As a result, the electricity exchange prices in France fell below the German prices again, which led to higher exports to Germany. The export patterns follow exactly the wholesale electricity prices: When there is a lull in the wind, Germany usually imports electricity; when there is a lot of wind or a lot of sun, when the price of electricity in this country is low, Germany is an exporter.

What happened to the fear that the nuclear phase-out would make electricity significantly more expensive in Germany?

The influence of the nuclear phase-out on market prices is small, because the development is influenced by significantly more important factors: The weather today has such a significant influence on short-term prices thanks to photovoltaics and wind power that the discontinuation of nuclear power is ignored in comparison. In addition, the price of gas also has a significant impact on the price of electricity on the stock exchange, which is why it was significantly lower for Germany in the first quarter of 2024 than in the first quarter of 2023. Opponents of nuclear power sometimes even try to justify the lower wholesale prices on spot and futures markets with the nuclear phase-out, but that is not the case is dubious – the reason is simply the significantly lower gas price, which has made the use of gas power plants considerably cheaper.

Has the risk of a blackout increased?

In 2022, when the last three nuclear power plants were still running, households had to go without electricity for an average of 12.2 minutes, according to information from the Federal Ministry of Economics, the second lowest value since 2006. At that time, 17 nuclear power plants were still connected to the network. Data for 2023 is not yet available. So far, the power grid and conventional power plants have compensated for fluctuations. If there is neither wind nor enough sun for a long period of time, things will get tight. There is still a lack of large electricity storage facilities and the network needs to be expanded.

Is it true that large parts of the world are relying on nuclear power while Germany has opted out?

Announcements about the construction of new reactors have been and continue to be made in various countries, and some projects have also been implemented. But in the global balance sheet, the new nuclear power plants were able to replace the loss of old reactors. Global nuclear power generation is therefore still at about the same level as it was 20 years ago. At the same time, as electricity consumption increased worldwide, the share of nuclear power in the international electricity mix fell continuously. In 2022 it was only 9.2 percent, the lowest value in 40 years. Photovoltaics and wind power together now generate more electricity worldwide than nuclear power.

How likely are new, smaller types of nuclear power plants?

Many currently only exist on paper. Experts like Christian von Hirschhausen from the Technical University of Berlin do not expect systems to be ready for the market for four decades at the earliest. And most produce nuclear waste.

What happens to the existing nuclear waste?

The approximately 27,000 cubic meters of highly radioactive waste from German nuclear power plants are to be stowed deep underground, where they will be safe for tens of thousands of years. A suitable location is being sought; it will not be determined for at least 20 years. Nuclear waste from several decades of operation is currently stored at the power plants and in the interim storage facilities in Ahaus and Lubmin.