Diplomatic downgrade: Russia and the Baltics are one step closer to breaking

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This week, Russia downgraded its diplomatic relations with Estonia. From the side of the Kremlin and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation a number of harsh statements were made against Tallinn. Experts consider what is happening natural. “DP” found out what the consequences of this step would be for the already difficult relations with the Baltic neighbors. On Monday, January 23, the Estonian ambassador was summoned to Smolenskaya Square, where he was protested in connection with the actions of Tallinn and demanded to leave Russia by February 7. The level of diplomatic representation in both countries has been lowered to charge d’affaires. At the same time, Moscow placed all responsibility for the deterioration of relations on the Estonian authorities. What is not surprising is that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has previously called Estonia “one of the most hostile states.” The neighbors were reminded of the recognition of the Russian Federation as a “country supporting terrorism”, and the reduction of the diplomatic mission in Tallinn, and the intention to restrict Russian shipping in the Baltic Sea. The Russian ambassador to the republic, Vladimir Lipaev, even stated that Western countries were going to supply weapons to Estonia in order to keep St. Petersburg at gunpoint. We curtailed the dialogue “There are three levels of organization of relations. The highest is when countries exchange diplomatic missions at the level of ambassadors extraordinary and plenipotentiary. This is a very high rank, it allows the representative to speak on behalf of the head of state. The second level is the envoy. We are moving to the lowest level – he is a chargé d’affaires,” explains Dmitry Solonnikov, director of the Institute for Contemporary State Development. However, in his opinion, the problem is not that lowering the level of diplomatic representation will cause negative consequences. On the contrary, relations between the two neighboring countries are so low that they do not correspond to the level of ambassadors. Lowering the level of diplomatic representation is an important signal of disagreement with the policies of another country. In the future, it may lead to a complete rupture of diplomatic relations, believes Professor of the Department of International Relations of the NWRIU RANEPA, Doctor of Political Sciences Nikolai Baranov. “They (the Estonian authorities – note” DP “) want to show that there will be nothing terrible for them, but the degree of Moscow’s influence will change, because a decrease in the level of diplomatic relations with European countries will definitely show Russia in an unfavorable light. The fact that they are small, — it doesn’t matter. The main thing is that it is a European country, a country of the European Union,” the expert notes. Lowering the level of relations, the parties stop, or at least curtail, the dialogue, political scientist Konstantin Kalachev agrees with his colleagues. “But this does not mean that further confrontation is inevitable. Rather, it is a signal that it is no longer possible to live like this. These are retaliatory measures against the actions of Estonia, which decided to transfer its self-propelled guns to Ukraine,” says the DP interlocutor. At the same time, from his point of view, the Baltic republic itself perceives itself not as a potential aggressor, but as a possible victim. “Can Estonia attack Russia? It’s ridiculous. But given the fact that there is a Narva problem, there are thousands of Russian citizens living in the country, Estonia takes the threat quite seriously,” the political scientist explains. Nothing new According to open data, more than 315 thousand people consider themselves Russians, which is almost a quarter of the population of Estonia. At the same time, more than 80 thousand citizens of the Russian Federation live in the country. The decline in relations was also a consequence of the attitude towards the Russian-speaking population in the Baltic countries, Nikolai Baranov believes. He recalled the demolition of monuments related to Russian culture and history. However, the expert does not expect the worsening of the situation in this area. “How much can you escalate the situation with respect to some ethnic minority while in the European Union? The EU, in accordance with its charters, declarations, requires that minorities in all countries have the opportunity to speak their language. I do not think that there will be an increase in this impact, it already negative,” says the professor. The presence of the ambassador in no way had a positive effect on the Russian-speaking citizens of these countries, Dmitry Solonnikov agrees. “Nothing new will happen,” summed up the director of the Institute of Contemporary State Development. “So far, we only see that the Russian embassy has refused to accept applications for renunciation of citizenship. If some residents of the republic would like to emphasize their loyalty to Estonia, then this opportunity was blocked for them,” says Konstantin Kalachev. Who is next Solidarity with Estonia has traditionally been expressed by Latvia. They also decided to lower the level of diplomatic relations with Russia. And in Lithuania, from where the Russian ambassador was expelled back in May last year, they called on other European countries to follow the example of the Baltics. Among the states most likely to heed this call, Poland stands out. However, despite the aggressive rhetoric of Warsaw, Poland and Russia are too much connected, Nikolai Baranov is sure. “There are sensible politicians in Poland who understand that such a huge country as Russia is too important a subject of international relations, especially in Europe, to refuse relations and contact through third countries, as Georgia does,” says the doctor of political Sciences. There are countries that will maintain diplomatic relations with Moscow to the last, retaining the hope that at least some normalization will happen, in any case, it will be possible to prevent a nuclear war, Konstantin Kalachev believes. “Estonia remembers the assault on the Vilnius television center, the painful collapse of the Soviet Union, and it is clear that the Baltic States and Poland are wary of Russia. And there are those who, like Hungary, which has already forgotten 1956, but remembers the beginning of the 20th century and what the Europeans deprived its two-thirds of the territory,” the political scientist notes. However, a pessimistic scenario is not ruled out, in which if not all, then most European countries will refuse relations with Russia. “We see that the Baltic states are using it as a trial balloon, which is thrown into the European theater to see what the reaction will be, and then move the rest of the states along the same path,” says Dmitry Solonnikov. The expert points out that it was the Baltic states that were the first to demand the supply of heavy weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and later this decision was made at the level of NATO defense ministers. Closing the Gulf of Finland Much has been discussed this week and Estonia’s intention to restrict the movement of Russian ships in the so-called “contiguous zone” – the part of the Baltic Sea adjacent to Estonian territorial waters. This decision is also called among those measures, the answer to which was the lowering of diplomatic relations. However, opinions on this issue, as a rule, are unambiguous. “There is international maritime law, we must proceed from this,” said Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the Russian president. Russian Ambassador to Estonia Vladimir Lipaev clarified the situation in more detail: “It is not possible to restrict free navigation in the adjacent zone. The only thing that can be done is to exercise additional control if the ship that is located there is suspected of violating the belongs to this contiguous zone.” However, for some time now, non-compliance with anti-Russian sanctions has been considered a violation in Estonia. There will be zones where Russian ships can navigate freely, and no one can forbid this, Dmitry Solonnikov is also sure. “As for entering Estonian waters, it is Estonia’s right to prohibit going there. You don’t have to go there. You have to go through neutral corridors, as established by international rules. You don’t need to trade with the Baltics, you don’t need to do business in Estonia, transfer Russian assets there. The question is for Russia, how Russia responds to this,” the political scientist summed up.

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