An attack on Israel – a conflict with Iran – will there be a big war in the Middle East – a forecast
[ad_1]
On the night of April 13 to 14, Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of attack drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, almost all of which were destroyed outside the country, and the damage from the attack was insignificant. US and British forces helped in the interception of air targets, after which Tel Aviv promised a response to Tehran, but has not yet decided on its scale and timing.
Considering the unprecedented nature of the direct Iranian attack, the West still expects a certain reaction from the Israelis, the seriousness of which will depend on whether the limits of a wider conflict are suspended or indeed in the Middle East there is a threat of the beginning of a great war. OBOZ.UA follows events in the region.
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said that the country would respond to Iran’s attack “when the time comes.” According to him, its purpose is to strengthen the “strategic alliance and regional cooperation”, which made it possible to withstand the Iranian attack.
“Iran is a global problem, a regional challenge and a danger for Israel. Yesterday, peace clearly stood with us in the face of this danger. Israel against Iran, peace against Iran – this is the result. This is a strategic achievement that we must use for our security”, – the official was quoted by The Times of Israel.
Gantz also noted that the strategic alliance and the system of regional cooperation built by Israel and which has withstood a serious test need to be strengthened precisely now. Although during the Iranian attack the country proved that “it is the anchor of military and technological power, as well as the anchor of security in the Middle East”, the minister emphasized that Tel Aviv will still respond to Tehran for this attack.
“In the face of the threat of Iran, we will create a regional coalition and demand a price from it, in such a way and at a time that suits us. And most importantly, in the face of our enemies’ desire to harm us, we will unite and become stronger,” Gantz assured.
He also noted that Israel has not yet completed all its tasks in the fight against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, in particular, it has not returned all the hostages and has not eliminated the threat to the north and south. Ganz added that the country’s Defense Army will continue this campaign “with determination and responsibility” and “together we will win.”
Iran asserts that its night attack on Israel is a response to the alleged Israeli shelling of the Iranian consulate in Damascus at the beginning of the month, when several leaders of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps were killed. After the strikes, Tehran warned Tel Aviv of “retaliation”, declaring that it would carry out an even larger-scale attack on its territory. Moreover, Tehran threatened to strike US bases if Washington supported Tel Aviv’s counterattack.
“I think this is a threat, talk, not action. They know what our second retaliation will be, so they understand that the next one will be the most decisive,” Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravane, told Sky News when asked about his intentions. Israel to answer for the attack.
At the same time, the USA warned Tel Aviv that they would not participate in Israel’s response to Tehran. On April 14, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed the situation with his colleagues from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, speaking with a representative of each country separately.
He made it clear that Washington does not want an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, but will continue to defend Israel, that is, support the defense.
Blinken and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Sameh Shukri, also spoke about the need to increase humanitarian aid to Gaza, protect Palestinian civilians, and immediately conclude a cease-fire agreement that ensures the release of all hostages.
At the same time, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog made it clear that the country already considers this attack by Iran a declaration of war. According to him, although Israel does not aspire to it, it is “considering all options” to respond to the actions of the Iranians.
After all steps to prevent escalation in the region, when the terrorist group Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, both sides managed to “stop literally in the abyss”, even when the violence from the militants spread to other countries of the Middle East. Iran’s new attack on Israel has once again unleashed a race to prevent a full-scale war. Bloomberg emphasized that US officials and their allies are now focusing their efforts on ensuring that any retaliation from Tel Aviv is measured and does not raise the stakes.
“Iran’s brutal government has struck directly for the first time in a decade, relying on proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah to wage a shadow war against its main regional rival. With massive shelling, Iran has shown it is ready to directly challenge Israel’s superior military, something the state has not decided to do for decades,” the publication says.
US officials, who a few days before the attack had warned that the situation was extremely dangerous, were relieved that the defense had worked and the damage was not insignificant. They have publicly and privately urged Israel to resist the urge to retaliate against Iran or at least make any response sufficiently limited to prevent further rate hikes.
Israel has made it clear that it is not planning a significant escalation, but is striving to defend itself. However, the concern of the West is that after such a massive blow, “logic may not prevail over emotions.” Analysts say that one of the symbols of this is the pressure on Prime Minister of Israel Binyamin Netanyahu from the supporters of a hard line in his government, because success in defeating the Iranian attack can strengthen his position.
“Iran’s attack was very deliberate in order to limit losses. However, we are as close as ever to a wider regional war,” says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Relations).
Israel spent 4-5 billion shekels ($1-1.3 billion) to repel a massive attack, which is ten times more than Iran’s spending on it. Mark Kanchian, a defense analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, believes that the lack of damage and losses in the attack means that the Israelis can limit their attack.
“Perhaps they will attack the military base that launched the rockets, perhaps a production plant or naval assets of Iran. Everyone is watching what the Israelis will do,” he said.
In general, officials in the region said that they expect a response from Israel, given the unprecedented nature of Iran’s direct attack. How serious it will be, experts say, will depend on whether the limits of a wider conflict are suspended or whether the region is really moving towards a major war.
Let us remind you that on the night of April 13 to 14, Iran openly attacked the territory of Israel, sending more than 200 strike drones and more than hundreds of missiles, including ballistic missiles. Tel Aviv said that almost all targets were shot down outside the country’s airspace. It has been confirmed that the strike caused minor damage to the Nevatym air base in the south, where F-35 aircraft are based. Several dozen victims were reported.
As reported by OBOZ.UA, the terrorist state Russia supported the massive attack of its partner Iran on Israel. The Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Vasyl Nebenzya, even accused Western countries, including the United States, Britain and France, of this.
The US Congress called on the American military to retaliate against Iran, and they are also going to hold Tehran accountable for the attack. At the same time, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the situation in the Middle East, the foreign ministers of the European Union will also meet, and Italy made a statement about the urgent convening of the G7 meeting.
We only have verified information in the Telegram channel OBOZ.UA and Viber. Don’t be fooled!
[ad_2]
Original Source Link
