The Russian army conducts at least three operations at the operational level – ISW

Ukrainian soldiers, illustrative photo of the General Staff

According to the experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the invading Russian troops are conducting at least three operations at the operational level and have intensified efforts to capture Chasovoy Yar.

Source: ISW

Details: Russian forces conduct at least three operations at the operational level, which are not complementary, but allow Russian forces to prioritize tactical successes in their chosen sector.

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Analysts stress that it will be increasingly difficult for Ukrainian forces to resist these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine is deprived of further US military aid.

The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on April 13 that the situation in eastern Ukraine has significantly worsened in recent days, and that Russian troops are conducting mechanized attacks in the Lyman, Bakhmut and Pokrovsky directions.

The report adds that Ukrainian forces are now struggling with significant shortages of both artillery shells and anti-aircraft defenses, which are critical components of their defense, and Russian forces are taking advantage of these shortages and improved weather conditions.

According to the observations and analyzed data of the institute’s specialists, the occupiers are intensifying their efforts to capture Chasovoy Yar.

“If the United States does not resume aid to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces continue to lack the necessary artillery ammunition and air defense equipment, even poorly trained and poorly equipped Russian forces may be able to conduct successful offensive operations,” the report states.

In addition, according to analysts, the offensive operation to capture Chasovoy Yar will open up the nearest prospects for an operationally significant advance for Russian troops, since the capture of the city will probably allow the occupiers to launch further offensive operations against the cities that actually form a significant defense belt of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.

Russian forces have long aimed to capture a group of large cities in the Donetsk region, which include Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka.

At the same time, ISW does not predict that the Russians will be able to capture any of these cities in the near future.

However, he expresses these thoughts about the threat posed by Russian forces taking over Chasoy Yar, as they are the likely most dangerous course of events (MDCOA), especially if the US does not quickly resume military aid to Ukraine.

ISW key findings for April 13:

• Russian forces conduct at least three operations at the operational level, which are not complementary, but allow Russian forces to prioritize tactical successes in their chosen sector. It will be increasingly difficult for Ukrainian forces to resist these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military aid.
• The military command of the Russian Federation probably estimates that Ukrainian troops will not be able to defend themselves against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays or the final termination of US military aid.
• The offensive operation to capture Chasovoy Yar opens up the nearest prospects for an operationally significant advance for the Russian troops, since the capture of the city will probably allow the Occupants to start further offensive operations against the cities that actually form a significant defense belt of Ukraine in the Donetsk region.
• Russian threats to Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka are very important from an operational point of view, as these fortress cities help form the backbone of Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region and eastern Ukraine as a whole.
• Russian forces will not be able to capture Chasiv Yar quickly and will likely try to exploit its operational importance immediately as long as Ukrainian forces have the resources necessary to hold their positions.
• Ukraine’s lack of artillery and air defenses, caused by the lack of US security assistance, allows Russian mechanized forces to achieve modest tactical success, and future Russian mechanized offensive operations may achieve more significant success if the United States continues to deny Ukraine aid.
• Germany has announced that it will immediately deliver another Patriot system to Ukraine in response to Ukraine’s recent very urgent calls for additional systems to defend against an increased Russian strike campaign and Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to expand Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
• Russian troops have made confirmed advances near Chasy Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Donetsk.