The weight of the foreign vote adds uncertainty to a heart-stopping night

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Galicia votes today, Sunday, but may not decide until a week later. Everything indicates that the result will be very close, settled on a handful of ballots in the four provinces. So much so that it would not be unreasonable if the distribution that ends on the 18th is not the final one. The coin can determine heads or tails or remain dancing on the edge, waiting for the CERA vote (Census of Absent Residents Abroad) to tilt it to one side (new absolute majority of the PP) or the other (possibilities of multiparty of nationalism and left). In the first autonomous elections in Galicia without a requested vote, almost half a million people registered abroad have been able to cast their vote; either by mail, until the 13th, or in ballot boxes – in consulates or authorized centers – until the 15th. That same day was the deadline for those who were temporarily in Spain to send their ballot. All these votes begin to be counted on the 26th, with a deadline of the 29th. We are talking about a very large pool of voters, but their weight in the final result is unknown. In the general elections of 23J – the first without a requested vote – the CERA vote, in Spain as a whole, was 10%, but in Galicia it was around 7%; That is, the same as at the national level in 2019, when bureaucratic obstacles had not been eliminated. In 2012 it was 3.26%; in 2016, 2.41%; and in 2020, 1.17%. A clearly downward trend. This 2024 there is another factor to take into account, which will reduce participation in South America: the vacation period (it is summer) and four Carnival holidays, of the six for deposit in the ballot box, which were also the last four to vote by mail . Related News standard No The external vote snatches a seat from the PSOE, which will need the yes of Junts in the investiture Emilio V. Escudero The PP adds a new deputy in Madrid and raises its count to 137 after the recount of the CERA votes. The PSOE is left with 121, one more than in 2019. In any case, if history teaches anything, it is that the vote from abroad has had an impact on the Galician elections, with and without a requested vote. Especially in 2005, when it did not give Manuel Fraga the few votes necessary to reach 38 seats, and Galicia entered a four-year phase of bipartite PSOE-BNG. In 2009 – when the participation of the diaspora was 30.32% – he subtracted one minute from the PP, but Feijóo had margin, with 39, and did not alter his first absolute. In 2020, however, going up one, to 42, only strengthened it. Almost 18% According to data from the National Statistics Institute, of the 2,693,624 Galicians with the right to vote on Sunday, 476,514 reside abroad: 17.7%. The highest volume occurs in the province of La Coruña, with 164,842; followed by Pontevedra (138,182); Ourense (103,832); and Lugo (69,658). Although, in relative terms, the weight is much greater in those in the interior, with 29% in Orense and more than 20% in Lugo; compared to 15% in the Atlantic provinces. By country, Argentina stands out, by far, a mythical destination of the diaspora – it is not in vain that Spaniards have historically been labeled as ‘Galician’ – with 166,289 residents. Cuba 45,672 Brazil 45,391 Uruguay 37,165 Switzerland 34,114 Venezuela 26,698 also stands out. The United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Mexico range between almost 18,000 and nearly 13,000. With another 38,559 Galicians scattered throughout the rest of the planet – there are, according to the song, even some on the Moon. Some of these countries have been pampered on the spot by the candidates. Especially Alfonso Rueda. He had been president of the Xunta for just six months when, in October 2022, he left to visit the Americas for the first time as the highest representative of the Galician government. He stopped in Argentina and Uruguay, alternating institutional appointments with meetings with the diaspora. He was no neophyte: as vice president of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, between 2010 and 2018, he had already gone to Argentina on six occasions, and Uruguay, on four. At that time he also traveled to Venezuela, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, Brazil and Peru. In April 2023, second trip, with stops in Panama, Venezuela and Mexico. And in October of that year, he traveled to Switzerland and Liechtenstein. Half a year before, Pontón had moved to the Swiss country. There are undeniable parallels with the parties’ affection for foreign votes in their programs. The PP dedicates a specific section with measures such as reinforcing the program for the return of Galicians, with contracts; a health card to directly access the public system during your stays; or bags with aid to travel and pursue a university degree – equating them to young people who live in Galicia, and who will have free tuition for the first year. These last two proposals were detailed by Rueda in Vigo in an event with returned Galicians. The conservative candidate stressed that the Community is in “debt” to them, and promised to “continue expanding rights to those who have every right.” The external vote can leave the result in the air for days and add uncertainty to a night that is already expected to be heart-stopping. Pontón, in its program, relies everything on return plans: one for young people and another for research personnel. , as well as health. The reality is that the Xunta already has the so-called ‘Return Strategy’ in place, valid until 2026 and a budget of 450 million. With the first edition, 28,000 people arrived (making up a family); It also includes scholarships for youth and a counseling office for returnees. It is a vote that the PP has worked much better than the left, with Antonio Rodríguez Miranda, secretary of the party abroad, at the controls. «We would like all young people who want to return to Galicia to come. Here they will have facilities when it comes to studying, homologating their degrees, helping them access housing or being able to establish companies,” Pontón courted in an interview in the Argentine newspaper Clarín. “You will be, as always, a fundamental piece” in the “future”, “I am counting on you,” Rueda appealed in a video broadcast on social networks. Will the CERA vote smile on Rueda or Pontón? Will he help extend the hegemony of the PP or will he opt for the “change” that the independentists and the left advocate? The answer may remain up in the air for days, and add uncertainty to a night that is already expected to be heart-stopping.

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