Attack of the Russian Federation: analysts predicted how the enemy would act

The Russian army can force Ukraine to redistribute resources from more active areas of the front if it concentrates its forces at any point along the Russian-Ukrainian and Belarusian-Ukrainian borders.

Russia’s future offensive operations will not necessarily be limited to the current front lines in the east and south of Ukraine, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

“Possibly, the command will deploy a limited amount of forces in some previously inactive sector of the front line to force Ukraine to redeploy its forces to this area, potentially creating vulnerabilities that could be exploited by the invaders. The ability of the Russian Federation to conduct opportunistic but limited offensive actions along the Ukrainian border opens up additional opportunities for it to contain Ukrainian troops and material assets,” analysts suggest.

At the same time, providing help from the West and Ukraine’s efforts to solve problems with manpower would weaken the consequences of such efforts of the enemy.

Defense forces are building fortifications and defensive positions near Sumy in response to reports of a significant build-up of Russian troops in the neighboring Bryansk region and recent attacks on Ukrainian settlements in the area.

The Kremlin is also conducting an information operation with threats regarding a possible attack on the Sumy region. At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities did not notice any Russian strike groups at the border with Sumy region.

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“ISW has not observed visual evidence that Russian forces are concentrating forces in the Bryansk region in preparation for any significant military operation. Russian forces are likely to be able to conduct a large-scale offensive operation in only one direction in the coming months. It is unlikely that Russian forces will suddenly will give priority to the new front over the operational areas on which they focused in the past year and a half in Ukraine,” the analysis says.

The Russians can theoretically choose to concentrate their forces at any point along the front line with a length of more than 3,000 km. km along the Russian-Ukrainian and Belarusian-Ukrainian borders in addition to the front line, forced Ukraine to respond to these actions by redistributing already terrible resources from other, more active areas of the front.

Ukraine already prefers to deploy its limited manpower and material resources in critical areas. Therefore, even a limited movement of troops and equipment from the active areas of the front may turn out to be a factor of destabilization.

“Russian offensive operations will not necessarily be limited to the existing front lines in the east and south of Ukraine. The Russian military command will have to deploy a limited amount of Russian forces on any previously inactive sector of the front line to force Ukraine to redeploy the necessary manpower and equipment to this area, potentially creating vulnerable places “, – said in the report of American experts.